Saddle Up, Lock & Load Super Bowl Edition

Saddle up, lock & load, here's some sweet, sweet Super Bowl action. With these picks, they are all guaranteed to be correct or your money back.

When picking a Super Bowl, the first thing you always should do is try and figure out which of the two teams are going to win the game outright. No point spread involved, just straight up. Find the right side of the game. There have only been five Super Bowls that have been played where the favorite has won, but hasn't covered the number. If you look at it from the other side, there have only been five Super Bowls where the underdog hasn't won the game outright, but still managed to cover the number. So basically, either the favorite is going to win the game and cover the number or the underdog is going to win the game outright. That's what usually happens. Now I will grant you that two of these five instances have happened in the last decade (Patriots twice, against the Panthers & Eagles), so this is not as automatic as it used to be.

To me, it's a helluva lot easier to make a case for the Steelers winning than the Cardinals, and keep in mind, I had the Cards in two of their three NFC playoff victories. I have respected them, I don't think they suck as bad as most people. I give them credit for making it, but they are simply up against the league's best defense. You have to go all the way back to last year to see that great defenses always slow down good to great offenses.

This game comes down to the fact that I see the Steelers being able to put up a lot more points against the Cardinals defense that I do the Cardinals being able to put up against the Steelers defense. Arizona usually can't run the ball against decent defenses, and I don't see them being able to run the ball against the Steeler defense.

To me, the right side of the game is the Steelers. History shows us that the Cardinals, in the end won't keep it close enough at the end to cover the 6 1/2. Another thing that you might do is take the Steelers and buy the 1/2 point (just to be safe) down to 6 at (-120), which isn't bad value.

My pick: Steelers 31, Cards 14 (I think the game will be under, but I don't like it very much)

Most of my money will be on the side, not the total or prop bets.

Prop Bets:

As usual, there isn't much value in prop bets this year because they kill you on the juice, and I won't end up playing very many of these, but the ones I like are:

Ben Roethlisberger OVER 17.5 completions (-130)
Gary Russell YES will he score a TD (+240) (good value here, if the Steelers get close the goal line and are running it in, he's their short yardage guy, odds are he's going to be the guy)
Troy Polamalu YES will he intercept a pass (+160)
Mitch Berger YES will punt result in a touchback (+160) (if you think that was just an excuse to involve Mitch Berger, you are correct)
Kurt Warner OVER 260.5 passing yards (-125) (don't like the juice on this one, but this has a good chance of happening whether the Cards are behind and in catch up mode, or if the Cards offense goes nuts and wins the game)
Anquan Boldin OVER 9.5 yards on first reception (-115)

My favorite 'adjusted line': Steelers -14.5 (+220)
My favorite 'cross sport line': Margin of victory -1.5 (-115) vs Anderson Varajao points scored
My favorite 'Who will the MVP thank first' line: Will thank God (-125)
My favorite 'Super Bowl MVP' line: Troy Polamalu (+800) (let's say Warner goes Neil O'Donnell and Polamalu has a couple of picks, brings one to the house, 8 to 1 is pretty good value)

Betting on the coin toss is sooooo 1998, don't even wait to get your sweet, sweet action. Take the OVER (-155) 2 minutes, 1 second on Jennifer Hudson's national anthem and take the NO on 'will Jennifer Hudson be lip-synching any part of the national anthem' at (-145). Yep, I just typed those things.

You take my advice or call this guy, either way, take the Steelers and lay the points.
BET EVERYTHING YOU OWN !!!!!